Virginia Democrats see an opportunity to expand their narrow 21-19 majority in the state Senate in 2027, with all 40 seats up for election.
Several Republican-held districts are drawing attention after Democrats won them during statewide races in 2025.
That political landscape is prompting a shuffle among Democrats in the House of Delegates, where the party holds a 64-36 majority after gaining 13 seats in the 2025 election. Several House Democrats are considering bids for Senate seats, according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions.
Their potential departures are, in turn, setting off a second round of maneuvering as other Democrats position themselves to seek the House seats that could be left open.
The result is an early domino effect taking shape more than a year before Election Day — with Democrats weighing not only which Senate seats they can compete for, but who will be in position to replace them in the House.
Virginia Scope spoke with several sources familiar with the moves to piece together where those potential shifts are taking shape.
SD-27
Republican state Sen. Tara Durant was elected in 2023 by less than 2% over the Democratic nominee, Joel Griffin. Democrats are hopeful to flip this seat after Gov. Abigail Spanberger won the district by 15 points in 2025.
Who is running
Del. Josh Cole is planning to run for the Democratic nomination, according to several sources. Monica Gary, who ran for this seat as an Independent in 2023 and received 4% of the vote, has already filed to run for this seat.
Trickle down
Joel Griffin, who ran against Durant in 2023, is planning to run for Cole’s House seat in HD-65. Jannan Holmes, who is a member of the Fredericksburg City Council, has already filed to run for Cole’s seat.
SD-24
Republican state Sen. Danny Diggs was elected in 2023 by a 1% margin over Democratic incumbent Monty Mason. Democrats hope to flip this seat after Spanberger won it by 15% in 2025.
Who is running
Del. Mark Downey has already filed to run for the Democratic nomination. Jason Parker, president of the Virginia State Building and Construction, has also filed to run for the Democratic nomination. And Lena Weissman, a community organizer, has filed to run.
Trickle down
So far, there is no word as to who will be running for Downey’s House seat if he stays in the race for Senate.
SD-17
Republican state Sen. Emily Jordan was elected in 2023 by a 5% margin over the Democratic nominee, Clint Jenkins. Democrats are hopeful to flip this seat after Spanberger won it by 11% in 2025.
Who is running
Del. Nadarius Clark is planning to run for the Democratic nomination, according to multiple sources. Former VA-02 Democratic candidate Mike Williamson has already filed to run.
Trickle down
Dr. Jessica Burgess has filed to run for the Democratic nomination in Clark’s district, HD-84.
Honorable mentions
Senate Democrats are also targeting state Sen. Glen Sturtevant, where Spanberger won his district by 9 points, and Sen. David Suetterlein, where Spanberger won his district by 7 points.
Several Democrats have already filed to run against Sturtevant, but multiple sources have told Virginia Scope that Del. Leslie Mehta is considering a run for the Democratic nomination.
Sources also say that if Mehta ends up running for the Senate seat, Randolph Critzer, who is currently running against Sturtevant, will drop down and run for Mehta’s seat in the House.
Trish Boyd-White has filed to run against Suetterlein.
*Numbers in this story were pulled from the Virginia Public Access Project