This year, Democrats see two more hills that suddenly look a little less steep. In Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District, Republican Rep. John McGuire was elected by 15 points in 2024. In Virginia’s Sixth Congressional District, Republican Rep. Ben Cline won by nearly 30 points in 2024.
Despite this recent history, Democrats are targeting these districts.
At first glance, you might think they are just being overly optimistic — which is common in politics — but what happened in Virginia House races last year provides a reason to wonder whether election night might be more entertaining than expected.
Democrats flipped 13 seats in the House of Delegates and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger won the governor’s race by 15 points.
The Democrats targeted seats held by Republican incumbents that very few people believed they could win — and they won them.
In HD-64 and HD-73, the Republicans were elected by nearly a double-digit margin in 2023, and Democrats flipped those seats, winning by a comfortable margin in 2025. In HD-69, Democrats did not even field a candidate to run against the Republican in 2023. The Democrat won by four points in 2025.
With President Donald Trump in office, Democrats were expected to expand their majority in 2025, perhaps from the 51 seats they had going into Election Day to 55, similar to the gains they made during Trump’s first term. But 64 seats, nearly a supermajority… that shocked a lot of people.
Now, in 2026, some Democratic targets are no surprise. Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia’s Second Congressional District is likely one of the easiest seats to flip in the country. The seat’s former representative, Elaine Luria, won the Democratic nomination in the district that defines the true definition of purple.
Kiggans defeated Luria in 2022 during an unpopular time for former President Joe Biden. Kiggans was then reelected in 2024 by four points. But Trump’s approval rating in Virginia has remained low since he took office, and in a district with a high military population, Luria is expected to wake up on November 4 as “Congresswoman-elect.” Additionally, Spanberger won VA-02 by nearly eight points in 2025.
In Virginia’s First Congressional District, an area that just 12 months ago no one could have imagined being in play, Democrats seem poised for a potential pickup. For context, just two months ago, I told someone that if Democrats win in VA-01, they are having an incredible night across the country.
Now it seems like Republican Rep. Rob Wittman, who has served in this seat since 2007 and won reelection in 2024 by 13 points, is in some serious trouble.
I reported yesterday that a new Washington Post poll shows his Democratic opponent, Henrico Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, leading by four points. Additionally, Taylor’s campaign told me she raised $2 million in the third quarter, bringing her total to $4 million.
Wittman told Virginia Scope on Thursday that “We always knew this race was going to be close.”
Wittman is a run-of-the-mill Republican who holds the party line. You would be hard-pressed to find a Republican in the area who has something negative to say about him. But that might not matter. Gas prices are astronomically high, and a trip to the grocery store costs more.
A $42 grocery trip in 2024 now costs $49 in 2026. If you keep that average moving forward, and realistically expect it is hard to feed a family for a week on $49 in groceries, it looks more like an $84 grocery trip in 2024 now costs $98. $14 a week comes out to $728 a year.
That may not seem like a lot, but when paychecks remain stagnant, $728 is a vacation a family can’t take in the summer.
Now back to what that has to do with this story. Wittman might be liked, respected, and loved by Republicans. But any squishy Republican, or an Independent — if they exist anymore — might want to send a message across the country that they want change. The only way to send that message in Virginia’s First Congressional District is to vote against the power in office — which right now is the Republican Party.
Additionally, Spanberger won VA-01 by two points in 2025, giving Democrats more optimism.
Democrats are taking their efforts — likely for the same reasons — to the next level by targeting McGuire and Cline.
The Washington Post poll released Thursday shows McGuire with a six-point lead over his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Tom Perriello. If that poll is accurate, that is a nine-point swing to the left from 2024, when McGuire won by 15.
Additionally, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released an internal poll on Thursday showing McGuire with a one-point lead and Trump with a 42% approval rating in VA-05.
The hill remains steep in this district. In 2025, when Democrats performed really well, Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears won the district by seven points.
But it is also unclear how the last 11 months have affected voter sentiment, how motivated Democrats might be to vote, or how unmotivated Republicans might be—resulting in them staying home on Election Day.
Perriello has raised $2.1 million as of July 1, compared with the Democratic nominee in 2024, who raised only $335,000.
In Virginia’s Sixth Congressional District, Democrats, sensing the momentum, announced on Friday that this race has been added to their list of “Districts in play.” Democrat Beth Macy is running against Cline.
“Almost one month out from the November election, Democrats are continuing to expand the midterm map into deep red territory as Republicans run scared,”said DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene.“Democrats are poised to win the House Majority in November because voters are fed up with Republicans’ broken promises while Democrats are focused on lowering costs, tackling corruption, and making life easier for hardworking families.”
Cline, who won by nearly 30 points in 2024, being a target is… very surprising. But then again, as I have said throughout this article, I am not sure if we should be surprised.
Earle-Sears won the district by 17 points in 2025, making that a nearly 13-point swing left from McGuire’s 2024 win.
Macy is also raising money — bringing in $1.7 million as of July 1. The Democratic nominee in 2024 raised less than $200,000.
While VA-06 is like climbing a mountain and VA-05 is like climbing a big hill, even if Democrats don’t make it to the top on election night, there is a benefit to trying, says Randolph-Macon College political science professor Dr. Richard Meagher.
“It builds support for the party that can help later in statewide races and if demographics change in the future,” he said. “Look at Texas today, which might be on its way to being a blue state.”
Meagher said it could also provide a short-term gain if the “blue wave” crests high enough for Perriello and Macy to actually win.
“A few months ago, it was an open question whether Rob Wittman really was vulnerable or not. And now the Washington has him 4 points down to Shannon Taylor,” Meagher continued. “If that’s the direction this fall’s race is going to go, then John McGuire and even Ben Cline could be vulnerable.”
And Spanberger in May, during the debate over Virginia’s redistricting efforts, said she believed four seats are in play for Democrats.
“I believe, somewhat doggedly, that we will win two to four seats in the House of Representatives. … That is my goal. That is what I know is possible,” she said.
Election Day is Nov. 3.