According to recent polls, Democrats and the Vote Yes campaign remain favored to win next week’s redistricting referendum. But a tightening race has given the Vote No effort new optimism after last fall’s sweeping Democratic victories across Virginia left Republicans with little hope for the near future.
Democrats still have a huge fundraising advantage – $64 million compared to $22 million from their opponents. Republicans, however, have seen a surge in fundraising in the final days of the campaign.
After dismal fundraising over the last few months, Virginians for Fair Maps, the Republican campaign against the referendum, has raised $14 million since the end of March.
Republican Party of Virginia Chair Jeff Ryer credits the recent public polling that shows the race is potentially within reach for the Vote No campaign.
“There just wasn’t a lot of belief that this was a winnable race,” Ryer said on Thursday. “I think many people saw what happened in California last fall, as well as in Virginia, as a reason to believe that this was not a hopeful cause.”
Ryer is referencing the November election, in which Gov. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, won by 15 points. Democrats also flipped 13 seats in the House of Delegates.
Those numbers left Republicans demoralized, which is normal for a party that loses big. But typically they have two years to build back momentum before the next state election cycle. This referendum is taking place six months later, leaving little time to turn around the sentiment across the commonwealth, which was clearly in favor of Democrats.
Polling, however, from George Mason University and State Navigate shows a roughly five-point lead for the Vote Yes campaign, and low approval ratings for Spanberger, giving Republicans hope.
“Both public polling and our own internal work have shown this to be a fiercely competitive election that is winnable,” Ryer continued. “If an election becomes fiercely competitive, it tends to attract donations.”
The late money is a welcome addition to the race for state-level Republicans who have been pleading for help from national donors.
“They have seemed to be very focused on making sure that the Epstein files were not released… they had plenty of time and effort to spend on that,” said state Sen. Glen Sturtevant, R-Colonial Heights, in early March, when pleading for more support to fight the referendum.
Spanberger, who is suffering from a deluge of attacks by conservative media and even some Democratic lawmakers, has felt the impact in support. Her approval numbers at this mark in her term are the lowest of any governor in recent history.
The Vote Yes campaign was running an ad featuring Spanberger speaking directly to the camera, but recently pulled it from the airwaves.
“I think they saw what we are seeing in polling, and what you’ve seen in public polls, which is Gov. Spanberger, in a very short period of time, has become somewhat of a polarizing figure in the commonwealth,” Ryer said. “And I would attribute that to the fact that you can’t campaign one way and then govern another way.”
The Vote Yes campaign did not respond to a request for comment regarding the ads’ removal from the airwaves.
Spanberger ran on affordability, and General Assembly Democrats seemingly forced this issue onto her in the final days of the November election. The special session to begin the redistricting process took place less than a week before Spanberger’s election.
Spanberger, who seemed hesitant to put her political weight behind the redistricting effort at first, has become the target of attacks by Republicans who use her past comments about gerrymandering against her.
Democrats are still moving forward, however, using their financial advantage and online presence to try to close out this race.
Spanberger and political commentator Lee McGowan urged Virginians to vote “yes” in the upcoming referendum on congressional redistricting during a virtual event with Democratic lawmakers and influencers Thursday night.
Many of Virginia’s congressional members and national Democratic figures participated in the event, encouraging Virginians to vote in support of the referendum.
Spanberger emphasized that the proposal would allow Virginia to adopt new congressional maps until the next census, after which the state would return to its bipartisan redistricting commission.
Spanberger also framed the referendum as a response to actions in states such as Texas and North Carolina, where lawmakers have redrawn maps to favor Republicans in Congress after President Donald Trump called on conservative states to find more seats.
“Virginia has the ability to do something responsive,” Spanberger said. “We are taking that responsive step to what we have seen other states do in response to a president saying he just thinks he’s entitled to congressional seats.”
McGowan characterized the effort as a way to “level the playing field” and ensure voters — not politicians — determine election outcomes.
Spanberger also addressed the Vote No campaign’s use of her past comments on gerrymandering, saying they were taken out of context.
“We have seen the campaign for no has used my face on TV and in mailers,” Spanberger said. “They have used President Obama’s face on TV and in mailers, and they have spoken of my prior support and continued support, to be clear, for our bipartisan redistricting amendment. They have talked about that, taking quotes out of context. But I’ve been very clear. I have already early voted yes on this referendum.”
President Donald Trump, who lost Virginia in 2016, 2020, and 2024, has not campaigned against the referendum so far. Ryer told reporters on Thursday that while the party has not explicitly asked the president to cross the river and hit the trail, they would welcome his help.
“The Republican Party of Virginia would always welcome the President of the United States and his active participation,” he said. “We certainly understand why at the present time, he has many other concerns.”
Early voting continues through the weekend, with Election Day set for Tuesday.