Hopewell, Va — Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears, who has consistently trailed her Democratic opponent Abigail Spanberger in both money and polling, is leaning into skepticism about polling and the media with less than 100 days until the election.
“How many of you have seen or read about the polls, which say I am 10 points down? Don’t believe it,” Earle-Sears said to a crowd of supporters inside a BBQ restaurant in Hopewell on Friday.
“Believe my opponent, because she is on video, saying, wait for it, this race is a toss-up….If she says it, I think in this case we can believe her.”
The statement that Earle-Sears is citing comes from a social media post by Spanberger in early April.
“Right now, national experts are calling our November 2025 race a total toss-up, and polls have my opponent and me neck and neck,” Spanberger said in the video. “We know both parties have their eyes on Virginia as we gear up for the most competitive statewide race in the country.”
A poll from VCU last month showed Spanberger with a 12-point lead, and a poll from Roanoke College in May showed her with a 17-point lead.
National polling has been on “shaky ground” recently, says Richard Meagher, a political science professor at Randolph-Macon College.
“But even recent polling errors were never big enough to suggest this current gubernatorial race is a ‘toss-up,’” Meagher continued. “Pointing to something her opponent said in April – which feels like 10 years ago – seems a little bit desperate.”
Earle-Sears continued to attack the media on Friday, saying they are reporting false fundraising numbers to try to help Spanberger.
At the end of June, for the most recent campaign finance reporting deadline, Spanberger had raised $27.1 million with $15.2 million still in the bank. Earle-Sears had raised $11.5 million total with $4.6 million in the bank.
“They’ve also said in those newspaper reports that I have only raised $2 million,” Earle-Sears said Friday. “Folks, in this last quarter, I have raised $6 million. Why would they say I only raised $2 million? It helps her.”
When asked about the comment, an Earle-Sears spokesperson referred Virginia Scope to a Washington Post story.
The story reported the numbers from the latest deadline for both candidates, which was June 6 through June 30. Due to the primary elections for other races in mid-June, all statewide candidates had to file a shorter report.
The numbers reported by the Post are accurate.
Earle-Sears has raised more than other Republican gubernatorial candidate in Virginia history during the first two quarters of an election year. Glenn Youngkin raised only $1.9 million during the first quarter of 2021, compared to Earle-Sears, who raised $2.6 million during that period this year. Youngkin, however, was able to self-fund his campaign, lending himself $20 million in total during the 2021 cycle.
Earle-Sears’ team is trying to stress this as a key point, while pushing aside the significant advantage Spanberger has.
“This kind of grassroots energy is historic — not just for our campaign, but for the future of Virginia,” Earle-Sears said in a press release in mid-July.
Earle-Sears acknowledged in Hopewell that Spanberger is outraising her, but maintained her mantra that the race is a toss-up.
“Now here’s the thing, she’s raised more money than I have. That is the truth,” she said in Hopewell. “But you know what my prayer has been, ‘Lord, please let one of mine equal 10 of hers.’ And it’s coming true because, well, we’re neck and neck.”
It is not a new strategy for a trailing candidate to tell supporters not to believe the numbers.
“Earle-Sears is adopting the time-honored strategy of the trailing candidate: ‘don’t trust the numbers,’” Meagher said. “Fundraising totals and polls don’t tell the whole story, but when you combine her dire numbers with all of the other negative press her campaign has been getting, it’s hard to see why supporters should believe her.”
Entering into the final stretch of the race, Earle-Sears is attempting to turn defiance into a part of her path to victory. However, with the numbers stacked against her and national attention mounting, convincing voters to ignore the scoreboard may not be enough.