During the 2021 gubernatorial race, the Republican ticket brought out hundreds of supporters to a farm in rural Chesterfield with an atmosphere similar to that of the state fair. At a separate rally that same cycle, Republican gubernatorial nominee Glenn Youngkin filled an airport hangar full of Republicans excited to vote for him — all while Doug Emhoff, who was second gentleman at the time — only brought out a few dozen Democrats to an event for Terry McAuliffe in downtown Richmond. Republicans rode that momentum to a sweep of the three statewide races.
Four years later, however, the enthusiam seems to have shifted. The entire statewide Republican ticket, along with Youngkin, brought out a crowd in Abingdon Saturday night that was much smaller than 2021 numbers — and Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares — who held an event last week in the same airport hangar in Chesterfield that Youngkin did in 2021, had less than 100 people in attendance.
Meanwhile, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger hosted former President Barack Obama in Norfolk Saturday, where a crowd of nearly 7,000 supporters gathered.
“The polls have consistently shown that the economy and, to a much lesser extent, threats to democracy rank high among voter concerns, while immigration and especially transgender rights, a key issue for Republican gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears, are ranking pretty low. This suggests to me that enthusiasm is much more on the Democratic side,” said Dr. Richard Meagher, a political science professor at Randolph Macon College.
Obama campaigned in 2021 for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe, but the crowd in Richmond was much smaller, and he eventually lost to Youngkin.
In 2017, however, Obama campaigned for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ralph Northam before a crowd of thousands of Democrats who stood in line for blocks to get a chance to attend. Northam eventually won by 10 points.
Ben Tribbett, a Democratic operative with decades of experience in Virginia politics, publicly commented on the enthusiasm difference.
“In 2021, the McAuliffe campaign canceled their Monday Hampton Roads rally when they were worried it would be dwarfed in attendance by the Youngkin one. We are not living in the same world this year,” he wrote on social media.
The differences between 2021 and 2025 are not complex or difficult to understand.
Due to the election schedule of choosing a new governor one year after the presidential election, Virginia has always been a bellwether for the country’s reaction to a new president.
Only once since the 1970s has Virginia elected a president from the same party as the White House.
“In many ways, this is a national election – and Trump is on the ballot,” Meagher said.
But this year, taking history into account, provides the ultimate test of whether voters care more about the individual candidate or the party they represent.
Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones, who has been embroiled in scandal since the start of October, has ignored calls to step down and instead focused on tying his opponent to Trump.
“I think this AG race might be the ultimate test of partisanship in the current political environment,” Meagher said. “If Jones wins, I suspect it will be because him being a Democrat matters much more than who he actually is as a candidate or person.”
Republicans are not without their share of controversy — however — it just happened much earlier in the cycle.
Back in April and May, the statewide ticket was embroiled in conflict after Youngkin asked Republican lieutenant governor nominee John Reid, the first openly gay statewide nominee in Virginia, to drop out of the race after a Tumblr with lewd reposts was discovered. The account used Reid’s personal social media username.
Reid denied and continues to deny that the account was his.
Earle-Sears, who openly opposes gay marriage, distanced herself from Reid, saying at the time that they are each running their own individual race.
Earle-Sears and Reid have not appeared very often on the trail together since, although the number of joint events started to increase in the final weeks of the race.
While there have been many distractions from down-ballot races, the top of the ticket is always the largest driving force for voters.
“I think both Earle-Sears and Spanberger have successfully defined themselves,” Meagher said. “I just think Spanberger has taken advantage of media opportunities more fully, and that the national and state environment is just not as friendly to the Earle-Sears message.”
Spanberger has led in the polls since the start, but the Jones scandal has encouraged Republicans to rally behind Miyares, who is viewed as the party’s best chance at victory.
Earle-Sears has invested a lot of money and effort in linking Spanberger and Jones, but polls released since the scandal broke show voters are sticking with the Democrat.
“Jones’ troubles slowed down Democratic momentum for sure, but they don’t seem to have affected Spanberger at all if polls are to be believed,” Meagher said.
In the end, voters are choosing between two candidates with different styles that have been made apparent on the trail.
“Earle-Sears is more dynamic, even Trumpian, while Spanberger is more wonky, serious, even boring,” Meagher said. “But I think Virginians may want boring after such a chaotic start to the Trump Administration.”
A Republican operative with experience in Virginia summed up the difference between the two cycles in a statement to Virginia Scope.
“Winning campaigns look like they’re having fun. You saw it with the thousands of people who not only showed up for Youngkin events in 2021, but the thousands who knocked doors, made phone calls, and worked the polls. Today, Spanberger’s campaign looks like they’re having fun.”