Republican Andrew Rice, a deputy commonwealth’s attorney in Virginia Beach, defeated his Democratic opponent Cheryl Smith to replace longtime Republican Del. Barry Knight, who passed away last month. Rice won with 62% of the vote, which is five points higher than Knight’s last two wins against opponents.
This overperformance could be promising for Republicans seeking to win a statewide referendum next month to stop congressional redistricting. Democrats want to redraw the boundaries to create 10 Democratic districts, compared to the 6 they have now.
“I would say that the high numbers should at least be encouraging for Republicans that their voters are not all staying home,” said Dr. Richard Meagher, a political science professor at Randolph-Macon College.
This one House special election is giving Republicans hope after a rough 2025 for the party.
“The road back starts here,” said House Republican Leader Terry Kilgore, R-Scott, in a statement Tuesday night.
Former Attorney General Jason Miyares, who is co-chair of the Republican campaign against the referendum, said last night’s results show that “common-sense voters” are pushing back against the policies coming out of the Democratic-controlled General Assembly.
“The invoices come due, and they don’t like what has come in the mail,” Miyares said. “I think they really have seen what’s coming out of Richmond, almost in disbelief, and they’re ready to make their voices heard at the ballot box.”
“I do think that has an impact on what’s going to happen with a referendum,” he continued. “People don’t like it when politicians cut back-room deals and draw a line that serves politicians instead of drawing lines that actually serve Virginians.”
Democrats, on the other hand, have been optimistic for the referendum after flipping 13 House seats and winning the governor’s race by 15 points in November.
“There still could be an enthusiasm gap, but it’s not as big as we might have thought,” Meagher said.
Democrats are outraising Republicans and have spent nearly $10 million more on TV ads.
State-level Republicans have been calling on the national party to invest in their campaign against the referendum.
“What ultimately matters, though, is if the national Republicans believe that these numbers mean anything. If they don’t invest in the race, it’s going to be really hard for the no side to keep up with the yes side,” Meagher said.
House Speaker Don Scott, D-Portsmouth, who pointed out that HD-98 is a ruby red district, also noted that Democrats need to remain motivated for the referendum in an interview Wednesday morning.
“Democrats have to make sure that we do everything that we can to win this referendum, because if we don’t, Donald Trump will remain unchecked and unaccountable,” Scott said. “Republicans have proven that they will not stand up to Donald Trump, and we have no choice now but to do everything that we can to stop him from destroying our economy and taking us into wars of choice.”
The referendum election is on April 21. Early voting has already started.