Nextgen America, a self-described coalition of young progressives, released a poll on Friday that shows a huge surge in voting among young people in the United States.

The poll also shows positive trends among new voters for the Biden campaign.

The polling of 18 to 34-year-olds shows Joe Biden maintaining a lead of more than 30 points over Donald Trump, with historic young voter turnout expected. The data is based on 1,000 interviews of potential voters in battleground states conducted by Global Strategy Group from October 20 to 28 with a +/- 3.1% confidence interval.  

Among those who will “definitely” vote or have already voted, Biden commands a 63% to 31% advantage.

Among all registered voters, Biden leads Trump 58% to 31%, a three-point gain from September’s 56% to 32% advantage. Biden’s lead is likely larger outside of the more conservative battleground audience polled by NextGen America and is six points better than Hillary Clinton’s 21-point lead over Trump from November of 2016.

People of color support Biden over Trump by a 60-point margin (75% to 15%). Biden’s favorability stands at 55% favorable versus 42% unfavorable, a +13 margin that improves considerably upon his +6 (50% to 44%) favorability rating in July. 

Adding to promising signs for Biden, 80% of registered voters in the poll said they will either “definitely” vote in the election or have already voted. The figure represents a 10-point jump from July, when 70% reported they would “definitely” cast a ballot. 

While the polling shows some roll-off in motivation to vote down-ballot from the presidential, young people remain primed to have a significant impact on Senate races. Named Democratic Senate candidates hold a 56% to 29% advantage over named Republican candidates, a +7 gain in margin from July. In Texas, where NextGen America recently expanded, Democratic challenger MJ Hegar has a 35-point lead with young voters over the Republican incumbent (61% to 26%). 

“Young people’s enthusiasm to vote in this election will provide the margin of victory for Joe Biden and Democrats up and down the ticket,” said NextGen America Executive Director Ben Wessel. “It’s simple math — the largest, most progressive generation of Americans is showing up in the states that matter most.” 

The Biden campaign’s climate policy is paying off with young voters. In NextGen’s first round of research, young voters perceived little difference between Trump and Biden on climate, a key issue for this growing voting bloc. Now, 60% of young voters believe Biden will be more effective at combating climate change, compared to just 14% who favor Trump. 


Full results from the Youth Vote Vibe Check Tracking Poll series can be found at www.nextgenamerica.org/research


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