Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in two newly released polls — with one showing her holding a commanding 17-point advantage six months out from Election Day.
A new survey from the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College found Spanberger ahead 43% to 26%, with 28% of voters still undecided and 3% backing another candidate. The poll, conducted May 12–19 among 658 Virginia residents, included 36% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 36% independents.
Spanberger’s favorability sits at 41%, nearly even with her unfavorable rating of 40%. Earle-Sears, meanwhile, is viewed favorably by just 32% of voters, with 48% viewing her unfavorably — a noticeable drop from earlier polling.
The poll also reflects growing voter dissatisfaction with the political climate. For the first time in eight years of IPOR polling, a majority (51%) say Virginia is on the wrong track. Two-thirds (66%) say the same about the country.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s job approval dropped seven points since November to 46% — his lowest rating yet. Former President Donald Trump fared worse, with 65% disapproving of his performance, the worst showing recorded in the IPOR poll’s history.
“Six months in a gubernatorial election season is an eternity in politics, but one would prefer to be ahead by 17 points,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. “More than a quarter of Virginians are undecided, and there is good news for both candidates. Spanberger is obviously leading at this point, and she leads among independents, but a large number of Republicans are undecided, and they will most likely end up voting for Earle-Sears. The favorable rating for Earle-Sears, however, should be cause for concern.”
A separate poll commissioned by Virginia FREE, a business advocacy group led by former Republican Del. Chris Saxman, also shows Spanberger in front — though by a slimmer margin of 52% to 48%. Conducted by Pantheon Insight, a group that was founded by current executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia, Ken Nunnencamp, and HarrisX, the survey of 1,000 likely 2025 voters shows Spanberger with stronger base support: 31% say they’re definitely backing her, compared to 23% for Earle-Sears.
Editors Note: Saxman’s consulting firm received $72,443 from Earle-Sears between 2021 and 2023, according to VPAP.
Both candidates have largely consolidated their partisan bases, with 91% of Democrats supporting Spanberger and 92% of Republicans backing Earle-Sears. Independents favor Spanberger 53% to 47%. Notably, nearly a third of Black voters (32%) support Earle-Sears.
Spanberger leads by 14 points among voters with college degrees (57% to 43%), while Earle-Sears leads by 7 points among voters without college degrees (53% to 46%).
The Virginia FREE poll also measured views of national and state figures. A majority of likely 2025 voters (56%) disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while 54% approve of Youngkin’s. Youngkin enjoys more cross-partisan support, with 24% of Democrats and 53% of independents approving of his performance. Trump’s numbers among those same groups are notably weaker: 9% and 39%, respectively.
Among minority voters, 28% approve of Trump’s performance as president, compared to 42% who approve of Youngkin’s work as governor.
The poll also found Democrats with a slight edge in the battle for the General Assembly. A generic Democrat leads a generic Republican 53% to 47% statewide.