Democratic performance in Virginia last week shocked almost everyone and has given Democrats confidence heading into elections for the House of Representatives next year.
Republicans currently represent five congressional districts in Virginia, while Democrats have six.
Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger (D) — who was just elected statewide by nearly 15 points — won two of the five Republican held seats, according to analysis from VPAP.
In Virginia’s First Congressional District, Spanberger received 51% of the vote compared to her Republican opponent, Lt. Gov Winsome Earle-Sears, who received 49%.
VA-01 is currently represented by Republican Rep. Rob Wittman, who was reelected in 2024 with 56% of the vote.
In Virginia’s Second Congressional District, Spanberger won last week with 53% of the vote.
VA-02 is currently represented by Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans, who was reelected in 2024 by a three-point margin.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee quickly realized how bad these numbers look for Wittman and Kiggans.
“With the exception of Winsome Earle-Sears, nobody had a worse night than Jen Kiggans and Rob Wittman,” said DCCC spokesperson Eli Cousin. “The writing is on the wall: They will lose next November.”
National Republicans are still confident in their chances next year.
“Rob Wittman and Jen Kiggans are both strong incumbents who’ve spent years delivering results for Virginians,” said Reilly Richardson, a spokesperson for the National Republican Campaign Committee. “National Democrats will continue wasting their time and money trying to beat them, but Virginians know Wittman and Kiggans have their backs.”
While Democrats just made huge gains here, Virginia, however, is an excellent example of the saying “as the pendulum swings.”
Voters often use Virginia’s off-year elections to send a message against national politics.
According to analysis from VPAP, VA-02 voted for Trump by five points in 2016, but the district voted for Democrat Ralph Northam for governor by two points just one year later.
Then in 2021, VA-02 voters supported Republican Glenn Youngkin for governor by 11 points.
Trump squeezed out a win in 2024 by .2% of a point, while Kiggans won by nearly four points.
With Trump metaphorically at the top of the ticket next year, all signs point to more Democratic gains in November.
Several candidates are seeking the Democratic nomination in each of these districts.
Former Rep. Elaine Luria, who was defeated by Kiggans in 2022 after redistricting made the district friendlier to Republicans, announced this week she is running again.
There is a point to be made that these details may become irrelevant, however, as Democrats in the General Assembly have started the process to allow them to redraw congressional districts before the elections.