The Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University released a new poll Wednesday showing a big lead for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger over her Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Democrats in down-ballot races also have a significant lead over their Republican opponents.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s approval rating is also dropping, and Virginians are largely not supportive of President Donald Trump.
“This poll should be a wake-up call,” Douglas Wilder said in a statement. “Governor Youngkin’s slipping numbers among Independents and the overwhelming disapproval of Trump, make clear that Virginia voters are not buying political spin. They want action on the issues that hit hardest: the rising costs of living, threats to women’s rights, and immigration policies.”
49% of respondents said they plan to vote for Spanberger, while 37% plan to vote for Earle-Sears.
Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi leads former radio host John Reid of the GOP, 46% to 36%, in the race for lieutenant governor.
Former Del. Jay Jones, a Democrat, leads Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares 47% to 38%. Nearly half of Independents — 47% — said they are undecided, a trend consistent across all three matchups. Each race falls outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.16 percentage points.
In the Wilder School’s December 2024 Commonwealth Poll, Spanberger was ahead 45% to 35%.
“As always has been maintained in this space, money and its influence will play a pivotal role in all of the elections,” Wilder continued. “The people are speaking. The question is: Are the ‘leaders’ listening?”
Among registered voters, 49% approve of the job the governor is doing, while 39% disapprove. Support is strongest among Republicans at 84%, and weakest among Democrats at 20%, with Independents nearly split — 51% disapprove. The numbers represent a slight decline from the December 2024 Commonwealth Poll, when 51% approved and 38% disapproved.
Trump remains less popular with Virginia voters. Overall, 40% approve of the job he is doing, while 55% disapprove. The partisan divide is stark: 84% of Republicans approve, compared with 93% of Democrats and 66% of Independents who disapprove.
When asked which issue would most influence their vote in the upcoming election, 28% of voters cited the rising cost of living, followed by women’s reproductive rights and immigration, each at 14%.
The results mark a notable shift from the December 2024 Commonwealth Poll, when 58% named the cost of living as their top concern and 14% pointed to K-12 education as the second-most important issue. The findings suggest voter priorities are shifting heading into the fall.