Instead of preparing for a single race, many congressional campaigns are effectively running parallel operations ahead of midterm elections: one for the current district and another for a potential future district that may or may not exist, depending on the outcome of an April referendum.
Campaign operatives across both parties describe Virginia’s pending redistricting as a uniquely disruptive political environment that has forced campaigns to operate in a state of permanent contingency planning. One party has to worry about changing electorates and potential primary challenges, while the other, for the most part, operates under the assumption that if they lose the referendum vote, they lose everything.
Virginia Scope spoke to several political operatives and staffers from both parties for this story. They were all granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Democrats in the General Assembly advanced legislation this year to amend the Virginia Constitution that would allow them to redraw congressional boundaries, creating 10 Democratic-friendly districts, with just one Republican.
Virginia’s current congressional delegation consists of six Democrats and five Republicans.
The maps have been created and released, but Virginia voters still have to approve the change in a referendum on April 21.
The uncertainty has reshaped nearly every aspect of campaign and official operations. On the official side, members of Congress remain legally and ethically bound to represent their existing districts until the next term, limiting their ability to engage potential new constituents through taxpayer-funded communications, town halls or constituent outreach.
Any engagement with communities that could become part of a new district must occur through campaign infrastructure rather than official channels, creating an artificial divide between governance and electoral politics that did not previously exist.
On the record, politicians and staffers will say that this divide has always existed.
But in practice, it is a lot easier for politicians to blur those lines on the trail.
On the campaign side, the lack of finalized maps has disrupted the basic mechanics of modern campaigning. Decisions about polling, voter modeling, targeting, field operations, staffing, budgeting and fundraising are all being made without knowing which voters will ultimately matter.
Campaigns also have to determine where to hire staff, where to place field organizers, how to structure grassroots programs, how to allocate resources and how to build turnout models when the electorate itself is undefined.
Foundational tasks such as signature collection and ballot access planning are complicated by the absence of settled district lines and shifting election timelines.
It will also impact media buys, as the newly proposed congressional districts will span multiple markets.
“The new maps not only completely scramble voters – they scramble media markets too,” said Dr. Richard Meagher, a political science professor at Randolph Macon College. “If you want to win in the proposed District 8, you may need media buys in DC/Alexandria, Richmond, and Norfolk. That’s going to get expensive.”
Some campaigns are deferring large-scale adjustments until after the referendum, maintaining operations in existing districts while preparing contingency plans in the background.
Others are already reallocating time, messaging and resources toward areas likely to be included in new districts, prioritizing early name recognition, relationship-building and organizational infrastructure in communities they may soon represent.
The result is a fragmented approach in which different campaigns are making different risk calculations about when and how aggressively to pivot.
Primary politics add another layer of complexity. In districts that change only marginally, redistricting is viewed as an extension of existing national political dynamics.
In districts that change substantially, however, there is a concern about primary challenges and altered coalition politics.
“There, frankly, always are concerns about primaries, especially in this environment,” one operative told Virginia Scope.
The compressed timeline created by shifted filing deadlines and a later primary date intensifies this uncertainty, blurring the line between primary and general election planning.
With the primary day being moved from June to August, that leaves three months until the general election.
The impact is especially pronounced for non-incumbent campaigns and flip-seat efforts. Candidates who were previously running long-shot races are now looking at potentially becoming favorites under the new maps. At the same time, they must navigate potential new primary dynamics while preparing for general elections in districts that may not yet exist.
Partisan strategy has also diverged sharply. Democratic operatives describe a complex balancing act between preparing for new districts, managing potential primaries and adapting campaign infrastructure to shifting electoral geography.
Republican operatives, however, largely frame the situation in a much simpler way: “Referendum or die.”
President Donald Trump is not popular in Virginia — Abigail Spanberger just won the gubernatorial race by 15 points, and House Democrats flipped 13 seats a few months ago.
With districts drawn to favor Democrats, it is hard for Republicans to believe they can win more than one race in this environment. District-level strategy has become secondary to the outcome of the ballot measure.
Additionally, the referendum ballot language approved by Democrats is more sympathetic to the Democratic cause, making the battle more difficult for Republicans.
Republicans have directed significant resources toward using the legal system to block the referendum from taking place — an effort that has shown promise but has not yet succeeded.
The Virginia Supreme Court has taken up the case, but the state’s highest court appears to be allowing the referendum vote to proceed before issuing a ruling.
This has added to the uncertainty of the situation.
“While it does look like the courts are going to let the people decide, it’s still possible they could halt the vote or cancel a yes vote afterwards,” Meagher said. “What happens if Virginia is forced to keep the existing district map – will all these ‘new’ candidates like Dan Helmer still run? And where? You may have wasted money and time campaigning for the wrong votes in the wrong places.”
Across both parties, staffers describe a shared sense that normal campaign logic has been suspended. Traditional planning models — working backward from turnout goals, budgeting from field needs, structuring staffing from district geography and building fundraising targets from operational costs — have broken down.
Instead, campaigns are improvising, building flexible structures and preparing for multiple political futures simultaneously.
“My bottom line advice to campaigns: whatever you do, don’t put a district number on your campaign materials,” Meagher said.