Sunday marks 100 days until Virginia voters choose their next governor — a race that has become both a historic milestone and a national bellwether for the political climate in President Donald Trump’s second term.
For the first time in state history, voters are poised to elect a woman to the governor’s mansion, with Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears locked in a race that has drawn attention and money from across the country.
Spanberger launched her campaign in November 2023 and has steadily built a financial and polling advantage. Earle-Sears, who entered the race nearly a year later, has faced mounting challenges — including lagging fundraising, internal campaign turnover, and criticism from within her own party.
With both candidates running unopposed in their primaries, the battle for the Executive Mansion has been underway all year with no punches being pulled. Spanberger is leading by double digits in some polls, and entered July with $10 million more in the bank than Earle-Sears.
Earle-Sears has focused her messaging on painting Spanberger as a progressive in disguise, citing her voting record in Congress.
“My opponent believes in one way only: whatever the far-left tells her,” Earle-Sears said in a statement to Virginia Scope. “That’s not freedom. That’s not the American Dream.”
Her campaign accused Spanberger of trying to do a makeover and refers to her as a “Nancy Pelosi footsoldier.”
“Abigail Spanberger can keep lying about her record but in 100 days, Virginians will show her exactly what they think,” Earle-Sears campaign spokesperson Peyton Vogel said in a statement to Virginia Scope. “She voted against the Laken Riley Act. Against border security. Against protecting American families. That’s not moderate — that’s AOC radical. Now she wants Virginians to forget. We won’t.”
Earle-Sears recently seized on a recent U.S. Department of Education report that found five Northern Virginia school districts violated Title IX, using it to attack both Spanberger and Democratic lieutenant governor nominee Ghazala Hashmi.
“If you’re the parent of a female athlete, I promise you I will fight for safe spaces for our girls and the right of our children to feel safe and comfortable in school locker rooms,” Earle-Sears said. “Abigail Spanberger and Ghazala Hashmi have proven—repeatedly—that they will not. Given the choice, the Spanberger-Hashmi ticket will pick dangerous and extreme policies over our children every time.”
Spanberger’s campaign did not comment on the Education Department’s findings.
Unity
Republicans have struggled to present a unified front, with tensions surfacing between Earle-Sears and GOP lieutenant governor nominee John Reid, the state’s first openly gay statewide candidate. Earle-Sears has said the two have “their own races to run,” prompting more questions.
During an event last month, the Republican ticket was present at the same event, but they shared a stage for only a couple of minutes and Earle-Sears did not mention Reid during her speech. She recently told John Fredericks that she forgot to mention him.
Republicans have since attempted to project unity with the rollout of a “Victory Program” featuring Earle-Sears, Reid and Attorney General Jason Miyares. It marked the first time Earle-Sears publicly affirmed her ticket-mates in months, saying she was “proud to stand shoulder-to-shoulder” with them.
But internal challenges remain. Staff turnover and a lack of joint messaging have sparked criticism from across the party.
“The concern is not with you as a candidate,” conservative radio host John Reid told Earle-Sears in a recent interview. “The concern was, and still is, with the apparatus of your campaign.”
Analysts also point to the steep hill Republicans are already facing, with history showing them at a disadvantage with Trump in the White House.
“The lack of unity on the GOP side has happened before — though not to this extent,” said Richard Meagher, a political science professor at Randolph-Macon College. “With the national and state picture favoring Democrats, Republicans need a disciplined candidate executing a strategy flawlessly to compete. We’re not seeing any strategy, any execution, or anything disciplined from the Earle-Sears campaign.”
Additionally, Earle-Sears still has not received public support from Trump, who endorsed Glenn Youngkin the day after he won the nomination in 2021. MAGA-nation has been slowly warming up to Earle-Sears after she said in 2022 that she believed Trump should move on instead of running for president again. She later gave him her full endorsement.
Fredericks asked Earle-Sears if she has repaired her relationship with Trump.
“I can’t talk too much about that,” she responded. “But I’ve met with the president, and everybody understands that this is a win. It’s going to happen, and you’ll see some things coming.”
Ironically, perhaps the most constant criticism levied by Democrats towards Earle-Sears has been that she will not push back against the Trump administration’s actions and their impact on Virginia.
“As Virginia’s next governor, Abigail will continue to put petty political games aside and put Virginia first, not grovel to win the approval of a president who is threatening Virginians’ jobs, healthcare, and economic future,” said Spanberger spokesperson Libby Wiet.
Some Republicans have started to discuss prioritizing the attorney general race in recent weeks – where Miyares is seeking reelection to a second term – as a way to prevent a Democratic statewide trifecta.
Miyares has raised a lot more money than his Democratic challenger, Jay Jones, who had to burn money on a hard-fought battle for the nomination in June.
But Jones is still leading in the latest poll, and ticket-splitting, to the extent of a 10-point difference between governor and attorney general, does not seem likely.
“The last time we had a split ticket was 20 years ago; it’s just not how people vote today,” Meagher said.
Miyares is liked by Republicans and does have the incumbency advantage, however.
“He’s likely to run ahead of Earle-Sears and Reid; if the race tightens and it’s not a runaway Blue Wave, then he’s got a shot even if Spanberger wins,” Meagher said. “But it’s a long shot.”
100 more to go
Despite the months of campaigning, most Virginians are only now beginning to tune in to the race. Political memory fades fast, and both nominees have 100 days to define the contest — and themselves — before voters head to the polls.
“Over the next 100 days, my campaign will be relentless in our outreach efforts, engaging communities statewide and sharing my clear vision for Virginia’s future,” Spanberger said in a statement to Virginia Scope. “And come January, my administration will get to work to drive down costs, expand economic opportunity, and make Virginia’s public schools the very best in the nation.”
Earle-Sears insists that the race, despite the recent polls, is still up for grabs.
“With 100 days to go, this race is wide open and we’re charging ahead,” Earle-Sears said in a statement to Virginia Scope. “Virginians want options, not government mandates. I believe in school options, all-of-the-above energy options, and safe communities where we back the blue and enforce the law. As a Marine, I defend liberty and the options it brings us. This November, Virginians will choose common sense over control.”
Election Day is Nov. 4.